Tracing China’s CO2 Emissions in Global Value Chains
Meng Bo, Glen Peters and Wang Zhi
摘要：中國是碳排放大國，在國際社會面臨著巨大的減排壓力。同時，中國也是全球價值鏈的重要參與者， 從中受益匪淺。理清排放與價值鏈之間的關系，對于討論如何科學地分擔排放責任以及合理地推進國際環境治理十分重要。本文介紹了一套全新的環境核算體系，該體系基于一個完全封閉的多國投入產出模型，可分為三個框架。本文采用全球投入產出數據庫中1995-2009年數據，分別舉實例，以圖表形式對該核算體系的三個框架進行詳細解釋。研究發現，通過國際貿易途徑創造的GDP與不經由任何貿易途徑僅在國內產業鏈中創造的GDP相比，環境成本更高；近年來，中國和其他發展中經濟體之間的排放轉移更加顯著；一個國家的碳排放與該國參與價值鏈的程度、 方式以及位置有著密切的關系。據此提出關注中國和其他發展中國家之間的隱含碳轉移等問題， 為全球碳減排提供了重要建議。
關鍵詞：價值鏈；碳排放；隱含碳；國際貿易
Abstract: China is the largest emitter of carbon emissions in the world, thus is facing enormous pressure to reduce emissions. At the same time, China is also one of the largest beneficiaries due to her active participation in global value chains. Understanding the relationship between carbon emissions and global value chain is crucial for both discussing the so-called carbon leakage through international trade and a political consensus about responsibility sharing between developed and developing economies. This paper unifies and extends existing emissions trade related measures, quantifies their relationships, and further combines them with trade in value-added and GVC-based measures in recent literature into one consistent accounting framework. Appling this accounting framework to the World Input-Output Database, this paper shows that the environmental cost for generating one unit GDP in domestic production networks is lower than that through international trade for both developed and developing countries; a country's pattern and level of emissions is crucially subject to its position and the extent of its participation, directly or indirectly, in GVCs through international trade; the carbon emission transfer between China and other developing countries has exceeded all bilateral emission trade between any developed economy blocks and China. This could be a great concern when talking about climate change strategy since both China and most developing countries are Non-Annex B economies in Kyoto Protocol and have relatively weak environmental regulations.
Keywords: Value Chain; CO2 Emissions; Embodied Emissions; International Trade
DOI：10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2016.01.002
